If the India-Pakistan war situation prolongs, it is expected to negatively impact not only Bangladesh's economy but also the economy, security, and politics of the entire subcontinent, according to Bangladeshi international relations, military, and economic analysts.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bangladesh stated in a press release that Bangladesh is "closely monitoring" the India-Pakistan situation. Both parties have been urged to remain calm. Bangladesh is deeply concerned about the ongoing tension between the two nations.
In the statement, the Bangladesh government also called for both countries to remain peaceful and restrained, and to avoid any actions that could further complicate the situation.
Bangladesh believes that regional peace, prosperity, and stability can only be ensured through diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and establish peace, which would benefit the people of the region.
Many analysts believe that Bangladesh is not a party to the India-Pakistan conflict. Therefore, Bangladesh will maintain a neutral position.
They also think that if the conflict continues, Bangladesh's business and trade will suffer the most. If tensions between the two neighboring countries do not subside, it will also affect South Asia and global geopolitics.
Analysts suggest that if global powers take direct positions, it could create further complications for Bangladesh.
When asked about the potential impact of the ongoing India-Pakistan tension, security analyst Lt. Gen. (Retd.) Aminul Karim told Deutsche Welle that perhaps some people might want to demonstrate reactions on Dhaka's streets.
Some Islamic groups might rally, but he believes the majority of common people will not take sides. Those who do want to show reactions on the streets should be handled cautiously. "We do not want any war. We are for peace," he said.
He added that if the war drags on, there is a risk of great power play. "China will take one side. The United States will take another. Israel has already made its stance clear. India and Pakistan will also want Bangladesh to state its position. But Bangladesh must be very strict in staying neutral," he emphasized.
If a larger war breaks out, there will be arms sales—both India and Pakistan will buy weapons. America and China will sell arms, making the region more unstable.
"The news of the conflict between the two countries has already created a sense of unrest among the general public in Bangladesh. An unease has already begun," he noted, adding that the economy would suffer the most, affecting not only the two countries but also Bangladesh.
Impact on Economy and Trade:
Dr. Mahfuz Kabir, Director of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS) and an economist, noted that the conflict has two types of economic impacts. Bangladesh's regular business and trade might be at risk. "We have recently increased imports from Pakistan. Now, maritime transportation will be disrupted. Our trade with India is primarily through land and waterways. Pakistan has already declared retaliation. If they attack economic hubs like Gujarat, our trade with India could also face obstacles. Our exports might be affected. We import raw materials from both countries, especially for the garment and pharmaceutical industries. Thus, industrial production might also be impacted," he explained.
According to him, several airlines have already changed their routes. This will mainly affect air and sea routes. If that happens, Bangladesh's trade with other countries might also be at risk. Not only is there uncertainty for Bangladesh, but the entire region is already feeling anxiety and instability.
If garment exports are disrupted, Bangladesh will face problems, as the lead time for garment exports is 60 days. "If we need to change the air and sea routes, the lead time will increase. We should start thinking about this now," he urged.
Business Concerns:
Former Director of the BGMEA (Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association), Mohiuddin Rubel, mentioned that the first impact of the India-Pakistan conflict is psychological, and that impact has already begun. "If war prolongs between the two neighboring countries, it will affect business and trade. Many might not realize, but our garment exports to India are not insignificant. We also have business with Pakistan. We import cotton and yarn from both countries. If that is disrupted, our garment production will suffer," he said.
If there are obstacles in air and sea routes beyond these two countries, it will also create problems for Bangladesh's trade with the rest of the world. "If world powers get involved in this conflict as they did in Ukraine, the situation could become unimaginable," he added.
He emphasized that the economic and trade impacts on Bangladesh are yet to be fully assessed. However, the government should sit with all parties to make an early assessment, prepare for contingencies, and consider alternatives.
Impact Across South Asia:
Former Ambassador Major General (Retd.) M Shahidul Haque believes that if the conflict drags on, the entire business, communication, and trade of South Asia will be affected. He also thinks investors will become cautious about investing in the region.
According to him, the war will have a significant impact on South Asian politics and security. "What's happening now is that India is trying to assert its influence. But the world is demanding proof of the Kashmir attack. Israel has openly sided with India. Others are condemning the attack but have not yet taken clear stances. If the war continues, positions will become clear," he explained.
When that happens, non-state actors might also get involved, reshaping the region's security and geopolitical landscape. This could also affect Bangladesh, he added.
Potential for Larger Conflict:
International relations analyst Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed mentioned that he does not think the war will become much larger or prolonged. "But if it does, it will impact South Asia, including Bangladesh. So far, I feel neither country's citizens are prepared for a long war," he observed.
He continued, "India is claiming Pakistan was involved in the Kashmir attack, so Modi had to do something to show his people. Although India calls it a precision strike, Pakistan denies it, saying civilian areas were attacked. In this age of technology, if precise information exists, precision strikes are possible. But the big question is whether India really had that information."
Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed also mentioned that if a large-scale war starts, with both countries being nuclear powers, the situation would be disastrous. The supply chain would be disrupted, affecting the entire South Asian region, including Bangladesh.
He noted that there is some support in Bangladesh for Kashmir. "If there is a big war, there might be processions in Bangladesh. However, since Kashmir is not directly related to Bangladesh, I don't expect anything major to happen here. But we hope our government remains cautious and refrains from making any statements that might drag us into conflict," he said.
Finally, he added that Bangladesh does not have the capacity to initiate negotiations or create an environment for dialogue between India and Pakistan, as it lacks the necessary diplomatic skills and professionalism.
