In the proposed national budget for the upcoming fiscal year 2026–27, an unprecedented and remarkable allocation has been planned for the social security sector, which is expected to open a new horizon for improving the living standards of marginalized communities across the country.
According to available information, allocations across various ministries under this sector are set to reach nearly Tk 130,000 crore, accounting for approximately 14 percent of the total budget (the projected size of this year's budget is estimated at around Tk 930,000–938,000 crore).
At a time when the country is facing economic slowdown and intense inflationary pressure, the government's decision to prioritize the poor, low-income groups, and homemakers through this welfare-oriented initiative is undoubtedly commendable.
In particular, the four mega flagship programs—Family Card, Farmer Card, nationwide canal excavation, and tree plantation through local government bodies and the Water Development Board—appear likely to play a far-reaching role in increasing the direct flow of money into the rural economy and addressing the risks of climate change.
However, no matter how impressive the size of the budget may be, its real success depends on complete transparency and accurate targeting.
Reports indicate that a final decision has been made to bring 4.1 million women-led households under the Family Card program and transfer Tk 2,500 per month directly to beneficiaries through the Government-to-Person (G2P) payment system.
On the other hand, the initiative to introduce the Farmer Card through the creation of an integrated database for genuine marginal and small-scale farmers is expected to provide a new momentum to agricultural production.
Nevertheless, the serious concerns raised by economists and researchers regarding this unprecedented allocation must also be taken into consideration. Their views cannot be ignored.
For example, according to a survey by the private research organization CPD, about 18 percent of the current beneficiaries of social assistance programs are still ineligible, while many deserving individuals remain excluded.
A lack of transparency in local administration and political influence have been identified as the main obstacles. Therefore, transparency and accountability must be ensured so that truly poor and vulnerable individuals receive these benefits.
Undoubtedly, this is a massive undertaking in the field of social protection. Alongside this, the expansion of the Open Market Sale (OMS) and Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) food-friendly programs, as well as the extension of 18 major schemes including allowances for the elderly, widows, abused wives, and persons with disabilities, will significantly increase the number of social security beneficiaries from 26 million to 36.3 million people.
This is highly encouraging. Another positive development is that this year's budget includes a forward-looking initiative similar to the Creative Economy program, aimed at integrating blacksmiths, potters, weavers, and cultural workers into economic activities.
However, at the same time, the constructive recommendations of the country's leading economists must also be considered. They have rightly pointed out that reducing the current 150–160 scattered small programs and focusing instead on five, six, or at most ten major programs would make it easier to ensure effective outcomes.
This is because a large number of fragmented small programs often make monitoring and institutional management more complex.
Therefore, for the successful implementation of this large-scale welfare budget, the government must firmly address bureaucratic complexities and the influence of middlemen.
It is essential to ensure the use of digital databases and impartial criteria in the distribution of new cards. Otherwise, there remains a significant risk that a large portion of these allocations could be wasted.
At the same time, if the government fails to collect the expected revenue by preventing tax evasion, its excessive dependence on bank borrowing may place additional pressure on the overall economy.
We believe that if the government can overcome these challenges and monitor the programs with full transparency, this social protection network will bring substantial benefits to the country's poor and vulnerable people.
