It doesn’t happen often.
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006. The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.
It’s unclear how big of a swing there could be, however. Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits. But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren’t as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
Early tells could be Pennsylvania’s 1st District, where Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick is trying to hold his suburban Philadelphia seat; Florida’s redrawn 22nd and 25th Districts, both of which were supposed to be Republican pickups after redistricting this spring; Virginia’s 2nd District rematch between Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former Rep. Elaine Luria; and Virginia’s 1st District, where Democrat Shannon Taylor, a local prosecutor, is challenging Republican Rep. Rob Wittman.
The Senate, meanwhile, is up for grabs. Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage. To net the four seats that Democrats need to take control, they must win states that Trump won. Among their targets: Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Texas and Alaska.
Early East Coast results could offer clues. Democrat Roy Cooper is favored to flip an open North Carolina seat, and Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is widely expected to win reelection in Georgia. If one or both of those outcomes don’t happen, or if the margins are razor-thin, it could forecast a stronger-than-expected Republican performance elsewhere.
