It is said that a cow whose shed has been burned once becomes frightened even at the sight of red clouds. The countries of the Third World are in much the same position as that cow.
Fresh uncertainty is emerging over the war in Iran. Over the past eight months since the outbreak of the war, disruptions to fuel supplies, international trade, transportation of goods, and market systems have taken a heavy toll on ordinary people around the world.
Although there had been faint signs of improvement in the situation in recent weeks, fears of a renewed expansion of the war have recently resurfaced.
The defeat of Donald Trump’s Republican Party at the hands of the Democrats in the midterm elections is undoubtedly a significant event in American politics.
The economic repercussions of the war in Iran and growing public dissatisfaction have been regarded as among the key reasons behind the Republicans’ electoral setback.
But the question is whether this political message will encourage the Trump administration to exercise restraint on Iran, or whether the President will adopt an even tougher stance in an attempt to offset the political damage caused by the defeat. Recent developments make it impossible to dismiss the latter possibility.
According to reports published by various international media outlets yesterday, November 8, US military and economic pressure against Iran is expanding further.
Alongside the naval blockade of Iranian ports, the US Central Command has established a task force called “Task Force Iron Gate” to disrupt Iran’s overland trade and supply networks. Its stated objectives are to prevent the movement of Iranian military technology, sanctioned goods, and illicit financial flows.
According to the United States, the naval blockade has disrupted nearly $25 billion worth of Iran’s crude oil exports. Meanwhile, US forces have immobilised a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman on allegations that it violated the blockade.
The announcement of a $20 million reward for information about Iran’s nuclear programme is another example of the growing pressure.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced that it is withdrawing previously declared restrictions on the range of its missiles.
Reports have also emerged of explosions and fires aboard several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. In Yemen, the conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels has intensified once again.
In other words, the risk of the conflict spreading across an increasingly wider region is growing.
The most dangerous aspect of this situation is the uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. If a prolonged disruption occurs along this strategically vital waterway, one of the world's most important routes for energy trade, oil supplies and transportation costs will rise.
The consequences will be felt across almost every sector of the economy, including electricity generation, manufacturing, agriculture, and the transportation of food products.
Although developed countries may be able to absorb some of the shock, poor and developing countries that depend heavily on imports will find it difficult to cope.
Inflation will rise, people's real incomes will decline, and employment opportunities will shrink. Public discontent and protests, which have already emerged in several countries over the economic burden of the war, could intensify further.
The encouraging news is that the diplomatic route has not yet been completely closed. A draft proposal for negotiations between the United States and Iran is reportedly being circulated under Qatar's mediation.
The possibility of an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade is also being discussed. Russia has joined the diplomatic efforts as well.
However, mutual distrust and the unwillingness of both sides to compromise on issues such as sanctions relief and security are making an agreement increasingly difficult to achieve.
Trump now faces both a political and a strategic dilemma. The outcome of the midterm elections has sent him a warning about the political cost of war.
Yet there is no guarantee that increasing military pressure will produce the desired results. Even a limited strike on key Iranian facilities could trigger a much larger war. The position of Israel's political leadership is also making the situation more complicated.
The world is in no position to bear the burden of another prolonged war. What is needed now is not a show of strength, but restraint and diplomatic wisdom. Otherwise, a single military decision, however limited, could once again push the global economy into an abyss of uncertainty.
