The gap between demand and supply of fuel gas in the country has taken on an acute form. Meanwhile, the irrigation season, Ramadan, and the summer are approaching.
As temperatures rise, electricity demand will increase. But despite having power plants, a large portion of their capacity will remain unused due to fuel shortages. Along with electricity demand, gas demand will also rise.
Consequently, sector insiders fear that this summer will again see increased electricity load shedding and greater shortfalls in gas supply.
Sources in the Power Division and the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) say that BPDB is the single buyer of electricity generated by power plants in the country. Distribution companies purchase electricity from BPDB at wholesale prices and sell it to consumers at retail rates.
Because BPDB buys electricity at relatively high prices and sells it at lower prices, the state-owned utility has fallen into massive debt. To repay these liabilities, BPDB has sought a government subsidy of Tk 38,000 crore. Officials in the Power Division have said that receiving the full amount demanded is almost impossible.
Meanwhile, Petrobangla has said that it will not be possible to supply electricity as per demand to gas-based power plants. Due to financial constraints, adequate electricity generation will also not be possible at alternative oil-fired and coal-based plants. As a result, it is considered almost inevitable that load shedding will increase as the heat intensifies.
Both crises at once:
At present, the country’s total electricity generation capacity, including imports, is about 28,000 megawatts. However, due to fuel shortages, electricity cannot be generated in line with demand. So far, the highest daily generation has been 16,794 megawatts.
This year, the highest electricity generation has been around 11,500 megawatts. According to BPDB sources, to manage load shedding, at least 1.30–1.40 billion cubic feet of gas per day is required.
Major coal-fired power plants—such as Payra, Rampal, Matarbari, Barapukuria, Patuakhali, and those of S Alam—must also ensure generation at full capacity. Due to the lack of progress in gas exploration, domestic gas production is declining by an average of 200 million cubic feet per year.
Currently, total daily gas supply, including expensive imported LNG, is 2.6 billion cubic feet, of which domestic gas accounts for 1.76 billion cubic feet. At this time last year, domestic gas production was 1.81 billion cubic feet.
A Petrobangla official said that if gas is supplied to the power sector according to demand, shortages will arise in households, industries, fertilizer factories, and other sectors. Therefore, gas supply to power generation will be increased as much as possible.
However, meeting full demand will not be possible under any circumstances, because domestic gas production cannot be increased overnight. Moreover, due to infrastructural limitations and a dollar shortage, LNG imports cannot be increased at will.
Losses despite subsidies:
In a recent letter sent to the Power Division, signed by BPDB Secretary Muhammad Rashedul Haque Pradhan, it was stated that fuel oil prices have risen due to the Russia–Ukraine war. At the same time, since 2023, Petrobangla has gradually increased gas prices from Tk 5.02 per cubic meter to Tk 15.50 per cubic meter.
This has raised the cost of electricity generation, but selling prices have not been increased. As a result, even after receiving subsidies, BPDB incurred losses of Tk 1,624 crore in 2021–2022, Tk 9,470 crore in 2022–2023, Tk 13,777 crore in 2023–2024, and Tk 13,578 crore in 2024–2025.
The government provided subsidies to BPDB amounting to Tk 12,800 crore in 2022, Tk 29,511 crore in 2023, Tk 33,000 crore in 2024, and Tk 59,600 crore in 2025.