Since the ceasefire collapsed, the United States-Iran war has escalated dramatically. Full-scale fighting is now underway.
On the 12th day since hostilities resumed, the U.S. military used B-1 long-range strategic bombers to strike multiple Iranian military targets, including command centers, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and logistics infrastructure.
These bombers, which flew from a British airbase, are capable of carrying 24 heavy bombs or numerous cruise missiles. This alone illustrates the intensity and scale of the conflict.
Meanwhile, tensions have flared once again in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a Saudi vessel in the Red Sea.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to strike Iranian bridges and power plants if Iran attacks any ship in the Strait of Hormuz using missiles, rockets, drones, or any other weapons.
The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are among the world's most critical maritime routes for transporting crude oil and international trade.
Any escalation of military tensions or blockade of these strategic waterways would have severe consequences for the global economy. Approximately 20% to 25% of the world's oil and energy supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while around 10% to 12% of global trade moves through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
If both routes were simultaneously disrupted, nearly one-quarter of global oil and gas supplies could be affected.
Such a scenario would likely send global crude oil prices soaring. The resulting surge in energy costs would fuel inflation worldwide and could trigger a global economic slowdown.
Emerging economies in South and Southeast Asia would be particularly vulnerable. Countries such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam rely heavily on imported energy.
Higher oil prices would sharply increase transportation and production costs, place immense pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and drive the cost of living beyond the reach of ordinary people.
In addition, remittance inflows could decline, as millions of migrant workers from these countries employed in the Middle East could see their jobs threatened.
If the war continues through November, it is also likely to have profound economic and political consequences within the United States. The enormous cost of military operations would further widen the federal budget deficit.
Rising energy prices would push inflation significantly higher, increasing public dissatisfaction among American voters. As a result, the war and its economic fallout could become a major political liability for President Donald Trump's Republican Party in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections.
If the current diplomatic and peace efforts remain limited to temporary assurances and promises, they are unlikely to bring the conflict to an end. The level of distrust between the two sides is simply too deep. Without a comprehensive and durable agreement, this bloody conflict cannot be stopped.
To prevent the crisis from spiraling further, world leaders must act promptly and decisively. The United Nations, the European Union, and influential Middle Eastern countries should undertake coordinated and effective diplomatic initiatives.
An international monitoring mechanism should be established immediately to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Above all, the only viable path to ending the war is to bring all parties back to the negotiating table and secure a mutually acceptable resolution that respects both security concerns and political interests. For the sake of global peace and stability, now is the time to abandon conflict and embrace diplomacy.