The simultaneous crisis in gas, coal, and fuel oil has been compounded by several major power plants having units out of operation.
At 2 a.m. on Sunday, load-shedding reached a peak of 3,595 megawatts. Even at 1 p.m. on Monday, nearly 18 percent of the electricity demand could not be supplied.
Load-shedding experienced by consumers was even greater than the figures recorded at the substation level.
In other words, after more than a month of fragile power conditions, August ended with one of the worst episodes of load-shedding in the country’s recent history.
With hours-long power outages amid intense heat, public suffering has reached extreme levels everywhere, from the capital to remote villages. Industrial production is being halted or reduced due to shortages of gas and electricity. Irrigation is being disrupted in agricultural areas. Poultry and livestock farmers are also facing difficulties because of power outages. Anger among workers in industrial areas is growing as a result of the crisis. In August, residents in several districts blocked roads and surrounded electricity offices in protest. There are also concerns that important electricity-related installations could come under attack.
Average load-shedding of 2,500 megawatts on Monday
People familiar with the sector say the country recorded its highest-ever daily load-shedding in August this year. Load-shedding remained at record levels throughout the month. There is little prospect of a major improvement in the situation in the short term unless LNG supplies increase and the shutdown units at the Payra and Matarbari power plants are brought back online. There is also uncertainty over coal stocks and fuel supplies to oil-fired power plants. If the heat does not subside, overcoming the overall crisis will become even more difficult.
According to hourly data from Power Grid Bangladesh PLC (PGCB), electricity demand in the country was 16,242 megawatts at 1 p.m. on Monday. Against this, 13,338 megawatts were supplied, leaving a load-shedding deficit of 2,904 megawatts. In other words, 17.9 percent of demand could not be met.
Earlier, at 1 a.m., demand was 16,675 megawatts while supply stood at 13,248 megawatts, leaving a deficit of 3,427 megawatts. At 2 a.m., demand increased to 16,809 megawatts, while supply fell to 13,214 megawatts. At that point, the day’s highest load-shedding figure of 3,595 megawatts was recorded.
Although the deficit declined somewhat after dawn, it did not remain stable. Load-shedding was 2,255 megawatts at 6 a.m., falling to 1,967 megawatts at 9 a.m. and 1,445 megawatts at 11 a.m. But within just one hour, load-shedding more than doubled to 3,101 megawatts at noon. At that time, demand was 16,146 megawatts and supply was 13,045 megawatts.
An analysis of the hourly figures from 1 a.m. to 1 p.m. shows that average load-shedding was approximately 2,509 megawatts. Because of such large fluctuations in electricity supply, distribution companies are also unable to maintain fixed load-shedding schedules.
71.5 million units of electricity not supplied on Sunday
High levels of load-shedding continued throughout Sunday as well. According to the daily report of PGCB’s National Load Dispatch Centre, generation was 13,514 megawatts at 3 p.m. At that time, the day’s highest load-shedding of 3,692 megawatts was recorded. The deficit was still 3,639 megawatts at 4 p.m.
The situation improved somewhat in the evening as generation from oil-fired power plants was increased. At 9 p.m., generation reached the day’s highest level of 15,829 megawatts, but demand had risen to 18,330 megawatts. Load-shedding at that time was 2,393 megawatts.
According to PGCB, 344.5 million units of electricity were generated throughout Sunday, against demand of approximately 416 million units. As a result, more than 71.5 million units of electricity could not be supplied. This means that the overall electricity shortfall was approximately 17.2 percent of total consumer demand that day.
39 percent shortfall in gas supply
Gas is the main foundation of the country’s power-generation system. Gas-fired power plants have a combined capacity of more than 12,000 megawatts. However, because of gas shortages, these plants are generating only around 4,200 to 5,100 megawatts. At times, generation falls as low as 3,500 megawatts.
According to Petrobangla, the country’s daily gas demand is approximately 3.8 billion cubic feet. On Sunday evening, 2.322 billion cubic feet were supplied to the national grid, leaving a shortfall of approximately 1.48 billion cubic feet, or 39 percent. Of the gas supplied, approximately 1.61 billion cubic feet came from domestic sources and 720 million cubic feet from imported LNG.
The gas crisis has intensified following disruptions to supply from Excelerate Energy’s floating LNG terminal in Maheshkhali. The electricity and industrial sectors have been hit hardest. Due to the shortage of gas, several units at power plants in Ghorashal, Siddhirganj, Meghnaghat, and Ashuganj are completely or partially shut down. Some plants are able to use only a small portion of their capacity because of low gas pressure.
Officials of the Rupantarita Prakritik Gas Company Limited said gas supplies could increase somewhat in the first or second week of September when a new LNG cargo arrives. However, a single cargo will not be enough to completely overcome the current large shortfall.
Nearly half of coal-fired generation capacity unused
The country’s coal-fired power plants have a combined generation capacity of 8,423 megawatts. However, actual generation from these plants is only between 4,000 and 4,800 megawatts. In other words, nearly half of the available capacity cannot be utilized.
One unit each at the Payra and Matarbari power plants is shut down. As a result, at least 1,200 megawatts of electricity are unavailable from the two plants. With one unit at Matarbari shut down, generation there is between 550 and 580 megawatts. Payra is also operating at half capacity.
The Rampal and RNPL power plants in Patuakhali cannot operate at full capacity because of low coal stocks. One unit at Barapukuria is also shut down for maintenance. Although SS Power in Banshkhali, Chattogram, is producing close to full capacity, it cannot make up for the shortfalls at the other plants.
Electricity cannot be imported at full capacity from Adani Power’s plant in Jharkhand, India. Even during peak hours, it is not possible to import 1,200 megawatts from the 1,470-megawatt plant. On Sunday, 1,111 megawatts were imported. As a result, the shortfall cannot be addressed even through imported electricity. In addition, electricity imports of 40 megawatts from Nepal have been suspended because of sudden flooding.
Oil-fired plants fail to provide relief despite increased generation
To compensate for shortages of gas and coal, the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) is trying to increase generation from expensive oil-fired power plants. Over the past week, the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation has supplied at least 20,000 tonnes of furnace oil to these plants—nearly twice the amount stipulated in the scheduled supply plan.
The country’s furnace-oil-fired power plants have a combined generation capacity of more than 5,600 megawatts. However, 28 plants are completely or partially shut down because of fuel shortages. For most of the day, these plants are generating between 1,500 and 2,000 megawatts. During the evening peak-demand period, efforts are being made to reduce the deficit by increasing generation from the costly oil-fired plants.
However, the cost of generating electricity from oil is very high. Therefore, relying on oil-fired generation to manage the crisis over the long term would be financially difficult. According to PGCB, the average cost of generating one unit of electricity on Sunday was Tk 7.74. Increasing oil-fired generation will push this cost even higher.
Three to six rounds of load-shedding a day even in the capital
The electricity deficit has increased so much that even areas of the capital that previously enjoyed relatively uninterrupted supply are now experiencing regular load-shedding. Residents of Gulshan, Banani, Baridhara, Bashundhara, Dhanmondi, Bailey Road, and Uttara have reported power cuts three to four times a day.
In many areas of Mirpur, Mohammadpur, Maghbazar, Badda, Rampura, Old Dhaka, Shyamoli, and Jatrabari, electricity is going out as many as five to six times a day. Each outage lasts from half an hour to an hour or even longer. Load-shedding in the evening and late at night is also disrupting people’s sleep in the intense heat.
Without electricity, households cannot operate water pumps, refrigerators, fans, or electric stoves. Because of low gas pressure, many families had already been cooking on electric stoves. Now, with load-shedding increasing, even that is becoming impossible. Students’ studies and online work from home are also being disrupted.
Officials of the distribution companies say they have been instructed to impose relatively equal load-shedding across areas, except for hospitals, important government installations, and critical industries. Although attempts are being made to increase load-shedding in Dhaka to reduce pressure on rural areas and upazila towns, the large overall deficit means the expected benefits are not being achieved.
According to region-wise figures at 9 p.m. on Sunday, Dhaka had the highest load-shedding at 573 megawatts. The deficits were 530 megawatts in Mymensingh, 311 in Khulna, 282 in Cumilla, 262 in Rajshahi, 238 in Rangpur, and 172 in Sylhet.
In many areas, customers are unable to withdraw money from ATMs because of power outages. At filling stations, the inconvenience of waiting for CNG has now been compounded by load-shedding. Even when electricity is unavailable, waiting vehicles cannot refuel with gas.
Industrial crisis turning into workers’ anger
The industries most severely affected by the electricity and gas crisis include textiles, dyeing, ceramics, steel, and other energy-intensive sectors. Several dyeing factories in Fatullah, Narayanganj, have had to halt production because of a lack of gas. Many factories in Madhabdi, Narsingdi, are operating only partially. Several departments in some factories have been completely shut down.
On Sunday, around 5,000 workers from various factories surrounded the office of Madhabdi Palli Bidyut Samity and blocked the Dhaka-Sylhet highway. The protest, which began at around 9:30 a.m. and continued until noon, caused traffic congestion on the highway. The workers fear that if production does not return to normal, they may not only stop receiving their salaries but could also lose their jobs.
No guarantee of quick relief
People familiar with the sector say there is no single cause behind the ongoing crisis. Disruptions in LNG terminal supplies, declining domestic gas production, shortages of coal stocks, insufficient furnace oil, and multiple units at major power plants being out of service have collectively made the electricity system extremely fragile.
Gas supplies may increase somewhat in the first or second week of September if a new LNG cargo arrives. But unless the shutdown units at Payra and Matarbari are brought back online and fuel supplies for other coal-fired plants are secured, it will be difficult to bring load-shedding down to a tolerable level quickly.
If the hot weather continues, there is a risk that the crisis will worsen further during the evening peak-demand period.