OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep its oil production targets unchanged for November, as the conflict in the Middle East continues to keep output from key Gulf producers well below pre-war levels.
The decision by the seven core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — was widely expected and means the group is unlikely to make further changes to its output policy before next year, according to the Gulf News.
The decision comes as Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel, compared with about $73 before the Iran war began in late February.
Gulf output
For Gulf producers, the headline quota decision masks a much bigger disruption to actual production. Oil exports from the region have been fluctuating at around 60 to 80 per cent of normal levels in recent months as the conflict has disrupted flows.
The seven core OPEC+ members produced about 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, according to OPEC data.
But that was still roughly 5 million bpd below their pre-war production level in February.
“Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters. “Consequently, the oil market remains tight.”
Output increases
OPEC+ has spent much of 2026 raising production targets after years of supply cuts. But many of those increases have remained largely theoretical because the conflict has prevented Gulf producers from returning to their previous production levels.
The group still has around 2 million bpd of output cuts in place covering most members.
The increases agreed earlier this year had been intended to gradually unwind some of the cuts introduced in previous years. The disruption to Gulf production, however, has limited their impact on actual supply.
For Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, the conflict has left production significantly below levels seen before the war.
Capacity review
The next major question for OPEC+ is how much each member can actually produce.
The group has delayed a review of members’ production capacity, which is important for determining 2027 production quotas.
The conflict has made that assessment more difficult because it has disrupted production and created uncertainty over members’ future production potential.
The capacity review will help determine how any future increases are distributed among members.
That means changes to output are unlikely before 2027, according to sources cited by Reuters.
Oil prices
The OPEC+ decision comes as oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East.
Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel despite falling on Friday after European leaders agreed to a US request to release diesel reserves.
Diesel prices have also surged, prompting Group of Seven nations to move towards releasing emergency stocks.
The combination of disrupted Gulf production, uncertainty over the conflict and constrained supply has kept pressure on energy markets.
Next meeting
The seven core OPEC+ members will meet online again on November 1, when they are expected to consider production plans for December.
The group’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which monitors market conditions but does not set production policy, also met on Sunday.
The committee reiterated its concern over attacks on energy infrastructure and their impact on market stability.
The next major OPEC+ policy decision is expected at a full ministerial meeting on November 29, when the group will address its production policy for next year.