Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus graciously congratulated Donald Trump’s resounding comeback to the White House, yet with the Trump administration back in office, the future trajectory of US-Bangladesh relations and its implications within Bangladesh’s already complex political circumstances presents a unique set of challenges and uncertainty in Dhaka.
While certain areas of collaboration can be expected to be similar to the first Trump administration, such as economic ties which are likely to persist, the new leadership of Bangladesh’s interim government may change many aspects of the previous state of relationship.
In contrast to the Biden administration which has a more organized and multilateral approach to international relations, Trump’s “America First” policy may bring unpredictability; however this policy may possibly prove to be rather beneficial for Bangladesh.
Trump’s America First policies will most likely mean reduced attention for Bangladesh, thus freeing Dhaka to prioritize alliances which prove to be beneficial for Bangladesh without the pressure of having to align with US preferences. While the US is engaging in Anti-China policies, China remains a key economic partner for Bangladesh that has invested greatly in commerce and infrastructure through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
All these investments have been important to the development of Bangladesh and to the continued growth of its economy. Therefore, without being under Washington’s radar, Dhaka has an opportunity to pursue further development assistance from China. Although, reduced US influence within the South Asian region may also cause a power vacuum which may be filled by other regional powers most notably India.
Trade relations which form the foundation of relations between the two countries are another volatile point. Bangladesh exports more than $10 billion worth of products in a year. Currently, Bangladesh has a trade surplus with the US especially because of the export of textiles and pharmaceuticals.
The Trump administration’s protectionist course, which seeks to balance trade, may reach for Bangladesh’s surplus through taxes or other barriers. However, Bangladesh’s exports may not become much of a priority as they have a low strategic importance to the US. Any interruption in trade could affect Bangladesh since it depends on such exports to spur growth and employment.
Also, immigration rules could hamper chances of getting skilled Bangladeshi workers into the American technology and engineering fields. This may in turn have the potential to impact upon the level of remittance —the funds which are so vital to Bangladesh.
Despite these challenges, Bangladesh holds its own responsibility for a stable and democratic future. There are ways the country can navigate Trump's presidency – that is, via active and effective diplomacy. Bangladesh can also assert its autonomy by advocating continuation of its national interests and values, even if it differs from those of the Trump Administration.
A balanced rationalist approach which would help strike a blend between accommodation and assertiveness may enable the nation to sustain a mutually beneficial relation with the US while pursuing the country’s sovereignty.
Trump’s skepticism of foreign aid and nation building provides the probability that the development aid and humanitarian assistance initiatives that were present under the Biden administration will be reduced. This reduction may affect important sectors in Bangladesh and force it to depend on regional powers or its own capability.
However, remaining an open market for the US may serve Bangladesh more under Trump's transactional approach. Meanwhile, Bangladesh would have the opportunity to benefit from pursuing support, especially in the area of tech, from China while also focusing on a beneficial, diplomatic, friendly relationship with India.
US foreign policy is based on state relations and Yunus is keen to engage with Washington, thus the future of Bangladesh under the Trump Administration is full of possibilities, leaving Bangladesh to navigate which diplomatic path it chooses.
The author, Jukta Monon, is a student of International Relations Department at Jahangirnagar University.
