Following the devastating earthquakes in Turkey and Syria in recent times, concerns about the possibility of a major earthquake in Bangladesh have heightened among both urban planners and the general public.
The anxiety is particularly high among the residents of Dhaka, as the city is situated on the Madhupur fault line. This region experiences continuous tectonic activity beneath the surface.
Additionally, Dhaka is surrounded by the Buriganga and Turag rivers, both of which were formed due to tectonic movements along the Madhupur fault.
Given the ongoing tectonic activity in and around Dhaka, the likelihood of a major earthquake remains significant. Over the past two decades, urbanization in Dhaka has increased by 27%, while water bodies have decreased by nearly 20%.
In 2011, Dhaka had a population of 12 million, which nearly doubled by 2021. As a result, a major earthquake could cause massive loss of life and property in the capital itself.
This discussion arises because the overall indicators do not provide a sense of security. The frequent minor and moderate earthquakes occurring in Bangladesh are alarming.
Notably, in the past 10 days alone, the country has experienced four mild to moderate tremors, most of which originated either within the country or in neighboring regions. The most recent earthquake, felt on Wednesday across Dhaka and other parts of the country, measured 5.6 on the Richter scale.
While no immediate damage was reported, concerns persist. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the epicenter of this earthquake was in Yaripok, Imphal, the capital of Manipur, India.
Data from the Seismic Observation and Research Center of the Meteorological Department indicate that Bangladesh and its nearby areas experienced 28 earthquakes in 2017.
This number increased to 41 in 2023 and reached 53 in 2024, marking the highest in eight years. Experts warn that frequent minor and moderate tremors could lead to a major earthquake at any time.
They believe the return cycle of magnitude-7 earthquakes is due. If such an event occurs, it could destroy 40% of buildings in Dhaka.
According to the USGS, Bangladesh lies in an active seismic zone. The Disaster Risk Index identifies Dhaka as one of the world's 20 most earthquake-prone cities.
Seismologists further explain that these frequent tremors result from the opposing movements of the Burmese and Indian tectonic plates. A significant amount of energy has accumulated at their junction and is seeking a release.
The earthquake risk assessment map developed by the Bangladesh government divides the country into three zones. The high-risk districts include Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Sunamganj, Kishoreganj, Sherpur, and Netrokona.
The medium-risk zone (Zone-2) includes Chattogram and the Chattogram Hill Tracts, Tangail, Gazipur, Dhaka, Munshiganj, Bogura, Gaibandha, Rangpur, and Kurigram. Other areas of the country are categorized as low-risk zones.
Given this classification, it is crucial to conduct earthquake preparedness drills in these high-risk cities. Preparedness and response drills must become a routine practice.
According to the National Disaster Management Plan (2021-2025), if a major earthquake strikes Bangladesh, 61.2 million people across the country will be affected.
How well are we prepared for such an event? Now is the time to implement long-term plans and raise public awareness to mitigate the potential risks of a major earthquake.